{"id":803,"date":"2026-09-14T09:13:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T16:13:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/?p=803"},"modified":"2026-09-14T09:13:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T16:13:53","slug":"week-of-14-september-2026-market-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/2026\/09\/14\/week-of-14-september-2026-market-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Week of 14 September, 2026 Market Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Macro and Micro:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember, there are big things, MACRO, and smaller things, MICRO, that will always affect the real estate market.  The notes below give you a MACRO look at some of the economic factors which will shape the national outlook.  But remember to pay attention to MICRO trends in your state and community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UNDER PRESSURE!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mortgage rates start the week under pressure as Treasury yields continue to rise. The latest Freddie Mac average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.76%, up from 6.71% the previous week. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 5.00%, up 0.03% from Friday. It is not enough to change rates, but it would make a rate buy-down slightly more expensive. This is the highest level since 2007. Rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and expectations that the Fed may raise rates this week have all contributed to the recent bond selloff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

THIS WEEK’S BIGGEST RATE MOVERS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday, September 15
\u2022 Empire State Manufacturing Index
\u2022 Federal Reserve Meeting Begins<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday, September 16
\u2022 Retail Sales
\u2022 Import & Export Prices
\u2022 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
\u2022 Fed Press Conference<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday is the biggest day of the week for mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thursday, September 17
\u2022 Weekly Jobless Claims
\u2022 Housing Starts & Building Permits
\u2022 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday, September 18
\u2022 Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week’s Fed meeting will likely determine the short-term direction of mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Fed remains aggressive on inflation:
\u2022 Treasury yields could remain elevated
\u2022 Mortgage rates could move higher
\u2022 The possibility of additional rate increases could increase<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Fed takes a more cautious approach:
\u2022 Bond markets could improve
\u2022 Treasury yields could move lower
\u2022 Mortgage rates could get some relief<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran and the Bond Market<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war with Iran continues to affect interest rates, mainly through its impact on oil and inflation. Brent crude has climbed to around $108 per barrel as fighting in the region and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict global oil supplies. Normally, geopolitical uncertainty can push investors into U.S. Treasuries for safety, which pushes yields lower. But right now, the opposite force is stronger. Higher oil prices mean higher gasoline, transportation, and production costs. That raises inflation concerns and makes it harder for the Fed to lower rates. That has helped push the 10-year Treasury yield to around 5.00%, putting additional upward pressure on mortgage rates. If tensions ease and oil prices decline, we could see some relief in Treasury yields and mortgage pricing. If oil continues higher, rates could remain under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Outlook<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and markets are now expecting a possible rate increase because inflation has remained elevated and higher energy prices are adding another layer of inflation risk. The Fed’s decision matters, but the comments after the meeting may matter just as much. Markets will be listening closely for guidance on whether this is a one-time response to inflation or whether additional rate increases could follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curious how this affects your real estate plans? Feel free to reach out to me at kevinthall@kw.com<\/a> or call me at 760-758-5370.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Macro and Micro: Remember, there are big things, MACRO, and smaller things, MICRO, that will always affect the real estate market.  The notes below give you a MACRO look at some of the economic factors which will shape the national … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6SnKv-cX","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/127"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=803"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":804,"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803\/revisions\/804"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.palomar.edu\/khall\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}