Macro and Micro:

Remember, there are big things, MACRO, and smaller things, MICRO, that will always affect the real estate market.  The notes below give you a MACRO look at some of the economic factors which will shape the national outlook.  But remember to pay attention to MICRO trends in your state and community.

UNDER PRESSURE!

Mortgage rates start the week under pressure as Treasury yields continue to rise. The latest Freddie Mac average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.76%, up from 6.71% the previous week. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 5.00%, up 0.03% from Friday. It is not enough to change rates, but it would make a rate buy-down slightly more expensive. This is the highest level since 2007. Rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and expectations that the Fed may raise rates this week have all contributed to the recent bond selloff.

THIS WEEK’S BIGGEST RATE MOVERS

Tuesday, September 15
• Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Federal Reserve Meeting Begins

Wednesday, September 16
• Retail Sales
• Import & Export Prices
• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
• Fed Press Conference

Wednesday is the biggest day of the week for mortgage rates.

Thursday, September 17
• Weekly Jobless Claims
• Housing Starts & Building Permits
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday, September 18
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

Why It Matters

This week’s Fed meeting will likely determine the short-term direction of mortgage rates.

If the Fed remains aggressive on inflation:
• Treasury yields could remain elevated
• Mortgage rates could move higher
• The possibility of additional rate increases could increase

If the Fed takes a more cautious approach:
• Bond markets could improve
• Treasury yields could move lower
• Mortgage rates could get some relief

Iran and the Bond Market

The war with Iran continues to affect interest rates, mainly through its impact on oil and inflation. Brent crude has climbed to around $108 per barrel as fighting in the region and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict global oil supplies. Normally, geopolitical uncertainty can push investors into U.S. Treasuries for safety, which pushes yields lower. But right now, the opposite force is stronger. Higher oil prices mean higher gasoline, transportation, and production costs. That raises inflation concerns and makes it harder for the Fed to lower rates. That has helped push the 10-year Treasury yield to around 5.00%, putting additional upward pressure on mortgage rates. If tensions ease and oil prices decline, we could see some relief in Treasury yields and mortgage pricing. If oil continues higher, rates could remain under pressure.

Federal Reserve Outlook

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and markets are now expecting a possible rate increase because inflation has remained elevated and higher energy prices are adding another layer of inflation risk. The Fed’s decision matters, but the comments after the meeting may matter just as much. Markets will be listening closely for guidance on whether this is a one-time response to inflation or whether additional rate increases could follow.

Curious how this affects your real estate plans? Feel free to reach out to me at kevinthall@kw.com or call me at 760-758-5370.

Here’s a quick market update for the week of August 31, 2026. This could be an important week for rates, with several employment reports leading up to Friday’s jobs report.

Bond Market & Rates

• The key 10-year Treasury is at 4.756%, . 036% higher than Friday. This should not be enough to raise rates, but it will make the cost of a rate buydown higher.

• Renewed fighting involving Iran pushed oil prices higher over the weekend. Higher oil prices can lead to more inflation, which isn’t good for Treasury yields or mortgage rates.

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole were also more aggressive on inflation than the market had hoped, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate hike in September.

• On the positive side, we’re seeing some signs that the labor market is slowing, which could eventually help bring rates down.

• Another issue affecting rates is the national debt, which recently passed $40 trillion.

• In the short term, the government needs to sell a large amount of Treasury bonds to fund ongoing deficits and refinance existing debt. When more Treasuries hit the market, investors may demand higher yields to buy them. That can push the 10-year Treasury higher and put pressure on mortgage rates. The fancy economic term is “Disintermediation of Funds.”

• For the Longer term, if the government continues running large deficits, the debt and the interest needed to service it will keep growing. That could keep Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher than they otherwise would be—even if the Fed eventually starts lowering short-term rates.

What to Expect This Week
The job market will be the main focus this week:
• Tuesday (9/1): JOLTS Job Openings & ISM Manufacturing
• Wednesday (9/2): ADP Private Payrolls
• Thursday (9/3): Weekly Jobless Claims & ISM Services
• Friday (9/4): August Jobs Report & Unemployment Rate

Friday is the big one. A weaker jobs report could bring the 10-year Treasury down and give us some improvement in mortgage rates. A stronger report could increase the chances of a September Fed hike and push rates higher. Another example of bad news (job loss) bring good news (rate cuts), or vice versa.

30-Year Fixed Rate Snapshot

• 10-year Treasury: approximately 4.75%
• Freddie Mac 30-year average: 6.66% as of August 27
• General conventional range: approximately 6.25%–6.75% for well-qualified borrowers, depending on credit, down payment, loan size and points.

Lock Now or Wait?
If you are closing in the next 2–3 weeks: I would lean toward locking. With Friday’s jobs report, higher oil prices and uncertainty about the Fed, there’s still plenty of risk that rates could move higher.
If you’re 30–60 days out: There’s a little more room to wait. If the jobs data comes in weaker than expected, we could see the 10-year Treasury move lower, creating a better opportunity to lock.

Assets & Home Equity as Income Loan
Sometimes good people don’t tick all the boxes on a traditional loan application.
This is a great option for home buyers with plenty of assets or home equity who don’t show enough traditional monthly income to qualify.
• Retirement assets: We can use 60% of eligible retirement assets and divide that amount by 60 months to create qualifying monthly income.
• Home equity: We can use 40% of eligible home equity and divide that amount by 60 months to create additional qualifying income.
• Even better, both can be used for the same borrower.
Example: A borrower with $1 million in eligible retirement assets could potentially generate $10,000 per month in qualifying income. If they also have $750,000 in eligible home equity, that could add another $5,000 per month.
That’s potentially $15,000 per month of qualifying income without relying on traditional employment income.

This can be a great solution for retired or high-net-worth clients who have significant wealth but may have difficulty qualifying using their tax returns or traditional income

For more information on this loan, contact me at kevin@garykent.com or call me at 760-758-5370 and I’ll connect you to our lender.

As many of you know, I’m still an active real estate broker. I’ve been licensed since 1984. Since that time, I’ve seen massive changes in how real estate is sold, bought, and invested in. I’m returning to my college blog to post about some of those changes and share real-life experiences from someone who has experienced them firsthand.

The internet has driven most of the changes. We now have massive amounts of data at our fingertips. In the past, the agent’s role was to guide folks through the real estate process. The internet has assisted with this, and it has been a great platform. Unfortunately, it has brought confusion. As I like to say, “You can get confused at a higher level now.”

So, whether you’re looking to buy a home, sell a home, or invest in real estate, I’ll share my knowledge, expertise, and guidance from over 50 years in the industry.

In the meantime, click here to search for homes for sale in San Diego.

What is the role of the agent? As I constantly tell my students… “That Depends.” It depends if you are looking to buy, sell, or invest.

To buy a home, many feel that since they can find homes for sale on any website, the agent’s role is unnecessary. Well, yes and no. Yes, you can search for homes for sale, but there are a few key warnings.

First, the information on these sites comes from the local Multiple Listing Services (MLS) through a process called Internet Data Exchange, or IDX.  Some sellers may not authorize their agents to put their listings.  So, not all listings are posted.

Second, there’s an old computer term, GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.  An experienced agent can use the MLS to overcome this.  Plus, the MLS is the source, and our searching options are more robust than online searching.

So, should you look online?  Of course, everyone does.  But use it to find neighborhoods that meet your expectations. 

A word of caution.  Remember that the most popular sites may be fun and easy to use, but some of the familiar players, like Zillow, Homes, and Realtor, exist for one key profit motive.  They harvest your information and sell your data.  Some will go to “member agents,” some will go to their proprietary services such as lending and insurance.

How to avoid this?  Start by choosing a great real estate agent.  Obviously, I can help you in San Diego County, and I can help you find a great agent in other cities, states, and regions.  Interview them and make sure that they can help you achieve your goal.  Remember, the agent’s role is to be a trusted guide.  You are the hero of this story.  Choose a great guide to achieve your goal.

To sell a home, most home sellers are looking to accomplish three things (not necessarily in this order).  To sell for the most money in the correct amount of time, with the least hassle.

First: Years of statistics have taught us an important lesson.  Properly priced homes sell faster and for closer to the original asking price (or more!).  Finding that sweet spot price is the job of a great listing agent.  The internet has brought us lots of online valuation services.  Just for fun, I checked four of them and found a 23% difference in their prices!  An experienced listing agent is an expert on pricing.  I’ll probably write another post on this.

Second: The correct amount of time.  Most folks would prefer a shorter time frame.  For others, a short time frame fills them with anxiety.  An experienced listing agent will listen to you and work to meet your goals. 

Third:  There are a lot of moving parts to selling a home; you might call them “Hassle.”  Our team’s job is to navigate the turbulence that can occur during the sales process and the escrow period.  Our job is to work to avoid or minimize the hassle, from helping you find any tradespeople you need to prepare your home, overseeing the prep work (if desired), to smoothing the way through the legally required paperwork, to coordinating the closing to meet your future plans.

Investing in real estate can take many forms.  For some, it is a life goal.  For me, it has brought my wife and me the ability to take some marvelous vacations.  For others, they may back into it almost accidentally.  Investing in real estate has proven through the centuries to be a consistent way to build real wealth.

Now, I’m not an attorney or a CPA, so please confirm this information with your legal and tax expert.  The US tax code has three key elements designed to help real estate sellers and investors to avoid taxes.  Here’s a quick introduction to them. 

The first is IRC 121; under the right conditions, home seller(s) can exclude $250,000 to $500,000 of the sale of their personal residence from income tax. There are a few moving parts on this, and I’ll write about it in detail in the future.  In the meantime, just contact me if you have a question.

The second is a 1031 tax-deferred exchange.  I’ve done many of these, both for my clients and myself.  This is the portion of the tax code that lets you sell and then purchase a replacement investment property and avoid (defer) the taxes.  This is a powerful wealth-building technique, and it is imperative to do it correctly.  It’s not difficult, but there are certain rules.  I’ll write more in the future, and as before, feel free to contact me for your situation.

The third tax benefit is a bit of a morbid one.  First, you have to die.  But, here’s the key.  If you hold your real estate investments in the correct way, your spouse, children, or other heirs may be able to get a “step-up in basis.”  So, even though you (or your loved one) is dead, the IRS allows you to reset your tax basis to the value at the time of death.  This is a key element of building multi-generational wealth.  More to follow!

I’m excited to relaunch this blog and share my 50 years of experience with you.  But a conversation takes two people.  If you’re reading this, please reach out to me with your questions, concerns, and topics of interest.

Kevin Hall

The Venerable Elder of Real Estate

NOT YET ON THE MARKET: Affordable condo in a great neighborhood. Are you a first time buyer or someone looking for a place to call home that is just the right size and low maintenance?

Check out 4149 Mt. Alifan Place #F in Clairemont. Clairemont is a large and populous San Diego community. It contains a number of restaurants, and a monthly car show. There are a few bars and clubs within Clairemont, but not as many as one would find in other areas of San Diego.

Along with Clairemont Town Square, there are also a few other hangout areas available to enjoy. Convoy Street is a busy street with a large amount of Asian influence. There are Asian-style markets, restaurants, tea shops, and other places that are great for exploring and trying new things. There are also numerous mini-malls throughtout Clairemont with many different restaurants and stores to discover. Within Clairemont there are a few separate neighborhoods: Bay Ho, North Clairemont, South Clairemont, and Mount Streets. Surrounding areas include Bay Park, Pacific Beach, University City, and Linda Vista. It is also bordered by three major freeways: the 52, 5 and 805. Most areas of San Diego are easily accessible because of these freeways. Clairemont is very family oriented; its homes are generally well-suited for large families. It has two branches of the San Diego Public Library, as well as over 20 different schools, including multiple private ones, to choose from.

This Clairemont condo at 4149 Mt. Alifan Place #F has two bedrooms, 1 bathroom, 910 square feet and is priced at $235,000. Affordable condo in great location — walk to shops (Kohl’s, Target, Walgreens) & dining (IHOP, Balboa International Grill, 85C Bakery Cafe, Vallarta Express). You’ll love the stunning remodeled kitchen with “Cappuccino Foam” granite, light wood cabinets, & recessed lights. This stunning condo offers big bedrooms, spacious living room, newer heating, and more. In addition, the complex has a pool, spa, & clubhouse.

Looking to sell your San Diego home? Get a free home value report.  Buying a San Diego home? Search all homes for sale.